The Great Yen Flip: Why Jupiter’s Mark Nash is Betting on a 9% Rally
In a market-moving shift of sentiment, one of the world’s most successful bond bears has officially "flipped." Mark Nash, the high-profile fixed-income specialist at Jupiter Asset Management, has abandoned his long-standing short position on Japanese debt and is now aggressively betting on the Japanese Yen (JPY) to surge against the dollar, the pound, and—most notably—the Swiss franc.
At the GME Academy, we see this as the "Normalization Trade" finally hitting its stride. Nash, whose fund outperformed 90% of peers over the last year, is essentially calling the end of the "Yen Carry Trade" as we know it.
1. The Catalyst: Takaichi’s Election Supermajority
The driver behind this reversal is the decisive victory of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in the February 8, 2026, general election.
Political Stability: Takaichi’s LDP secured a "supermajority," giving her a clear mandate to move past years of political gridlock.
Policy Clarity: While Takaichi is known for "proactive fiscal measures" (including a temporary sales tax cut on food), Nash argues that her victory provides the "policy anchor" that global investors have been waiting for.
Yield Compression: Since the election, 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields have retreated from their January highs of 2.38%, stabilizing around 2.21%.
2. The +8% Forecast: Why the Swiss Franc (CHF)?
The most striking part of Nash’s new strategy is his preference for the JPY/CHF pair.
Safe-Haven Swap: For decades, the Swiss franc was the world’s premier safety currency. Nash argues that Japan’s current political stability now compares favorably with the fiscal uncertainty in Europe and the U.S.
The 8-9% Target: Nash sees the Yen strengthening by roughly 8–9% against the Swiss franc and other major currencies.
The Sterling (GBP) Short: Nash is also shorting the Pound Sterling against the Yen, betting that the UK’s growth challenges will pale in comparison to Japan’s structural "reflation" narrative.
3. Diversification Away from the Dollar
The "Yen Flip" isn't just about Japan—it’s a vote of no confidence in the continued dominance of U.S. assets.
U.S. Policy Uncertainty: Amid shifting trade policies and "Peak Tariff" fears in the U.S., global managers like Nash are looking for high-quality alternatives.
Capital Inflow: As JGB yields become "attractive" relative to history (above 2%), Japan is seeing a surge in foreign capital inflows that were absent during the "Negative Interest Rate" era.
The GME Academy Analysis: "Watch the BOJ in March"
At Global Markets Eruditio, we believe Nash’s move puts even more pressure on the Bank of Japan (BOJ).
Trader's Takeaway for February 2026:
The "Carry Trade" Exit: If more hedge funds follow Jupiter’s lead, the "unwinding" of the Yen carry trade could become violent. Watch for sudden drops in the USD/JPY toward the 145.00 level.
Yield Watch: Despite Nash buying bonds, some analysts (like those at Mizuho) still expect the BOJ to hike rates up to three times in 2026. This creates a "double-win" for JPY bulls: higher yields and a stronger currency.
Volatility Warning: With JGB yields at multi-decade highs, the "anchor" of the global bond market is gone. Expect Fixed Income Volatility (MOVE Index) to remain elevated.
Join our FREE Macro Workshop at Global Markets Eruditio!
Are you ready for the "Yen Supercycle"? We’ll break down Mark Nash’s portfolio moves and show you how to trade the JPY/CHF as it targets its 2026 highs.
