The Mixed Holiday Bag: Joblessness Ticks Up to 2.26M, but Job Quality Hits a 20-Month High
The Philippine labor market closed 2025 on a complex note. According to the latest data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) released on February 6, 2026, the number of unemployed Filipinos rose slightly to 2.26 million in December. While the headline figure showed a marginal increase in joblessness, the report also revealed a historic improvement in the "quality" of employment as underemployment crashed to single digits.
At the GME Academy, we analyze these reports to understand the "purchasing power" of the Filipino consumer. While more people are technically without work, those with jobs are securing more stable hours, which is a bullish sign for long-term domestic consumption.
1. The Unemployment Stall: 4.4% Holding Steady
Despite the traditional "Ber-month" hiring boom, the holiday season didn't quite absorb all the new entrants into the workforce.
The Magnitude: Unemployed persons rose to 2.26 million, a slight uptick from 2.25 million in November.
The Rate: The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.4%.
The Labor Force Expansion: The total labor force grew to 51.69 million. This means the "jobless" increase was largely driven by more people actively looking for work (Labor Force Participation rose to 64.4%) rather than mass layoffs.
2. The Silver Lining: Underemployment Hits a Record Low
The standout "victory" in the December report was the dramatic drop in the Underemployment Rate, which fell to 8.0% (3.93 million people).
Why it matters: This is the first time the rate has hit single digits since May 2024 and the lowest print since April 2025.
Quality over Quantity: Underemployment tracks people who have jobs but want more hours or a better-paying second job. A lower rate suggests that current jobs are providing sufficient hours and income, reducing the "hustle" for extra work.
The Contrast: In November, underemployment stood at 10.4% (5.11 million). This suggests over a million Filipinos moved from "part-time/unstable" work into more substantial roles in December.
3. Sector Drivers: Services vs. Agriculture
The holiday season traditionally favors the services sector, which remains the primary employer of the Filipino workforce.
4. Forex and Macro Impact: Stability for the Peso
For USD/PHP traders, the PSA report provides a neutral-to-supportive backdrop for the Philippine Peso.
Consumer Spending: Low underemployment means more "full-time" paychecks, which support retail spending and keep the economy growing at a healthy clip.
BSP Outlook: With the labor market "stable" but not "overheating," the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has less pressure to hike rates, allowing for a more predictable monetary policy environment.
Remittance Season: The slight rise in joblessness is largely offset by the massive influx of OFW remittances that typically peak in December and January, keeping the Peso shielded from drastic devaluation.
The GME Academy Analysis: "Trading the Job Quality Pivot"
At Global Markets Eruditio, we look beyond the "Unemployed" headline. The real story is the 8.0% underemployment. This suggests that the "Quality of Work" is improving in the Philippines, which is a structural win for the economy.
Are You Watching the USD/PHP Resistance?
The 4.4% unemployment rate keeps the "soft landing" narrative alive for the Philippines. If the BSP remains confident in the labor market, we expect the PHP to maintain its range against the USD, especially with inflation remaining manageable.
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