Week 43 Market Outlook: Oil Above $100, AI Earnings, and a Silent Fed
Week of October 18–24, 2026
We are now moving through Week 43 of the 2026 trading year and another important October trading week. While we did not hold a live VIP session this week, that does not mean we enter the market without a roadmap. If anything, this week calls for even more discipline because some of the strongest market drivers are not neatly scheduled on an economic calendar.
The Federal Reserve is already in its quiet period ahead of the October 27–28 policy meeting. That means Fed officials will not be constantly explaining, confirming, or correcting the market’s interpretation of incoming developments. Instead, markets may have to take more of their direction from Treasury yields, oil prices, overseas inflation, business activity data, corporate earnings, and broader risk sentiment.
Two major stories carried into the week.
The first is oil. Crude prices finished last week firmly above $100 as concerns around shipping routes and Middle Eastern energy infrastructure continued to keep physical supply risks at the center of the market. Those concerns have remained important this week, with Brent moving above $110 and U.S. crude remaining above $100 as markets continue assessing potential disruptions to actual oil flows.
The second is the recent pressure on AI and semiconductor stocks. Coming into the week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index had fallen for eight consecutive sessions as investors questioned the cost of AI infrastructure, borrowing conditions, and whether current expectations could continue to justify valuations. Monday finally brought a rebound, but that does not automatically mean the broader concern has disappeared. With major technology earnings approaching, the market will now have an opportunity to test whether that relief can develop into something more sustainable.
That combination makes this a week where our preparation has to go beyond simply marking release times on the calendar.
For the U.S. dollar and gold, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains an important part of the story. With the Fed temporarily silent, changes in yields can help show how the bond market itself is interpreting inflation, growth, oil prices, and expectations for what the Fed may eventually do.
For oil, the distinction between headlines and actual physical supply remains especially important. Promises of future relief or negotiations may influence sentiment, but markets are likely to pay close attention to whether shipping routes, production facilities, and energy flows are actually being disrupted.
For broader risk sentiment, technology earnings now become another major test. After the sharp pressure seen across AI-related and semiconductor names, company results and forward guidance could help determine whether investors regain some willingness to take risk—or whether concerns around valuations, borrowing costs, and AI spending continue to weigh on equities.
And for currencies outside the United States, this week gives us several opportunities to focus on relative economic strength while the Fed remains quiet. Canada has already opened the week’s inflation picture, with September annual CPI rising to 3.1%. Inflation developments from other major economies, together with Friday’s global business-activity surveys, may give individual currencies their own catalysts rather than leaving everything dependent on the U.S. dollar.
This is exactly the type of market environment where we should avoid forcing one story across every currency pair.
Different economies are facing different combinations of inflation, growth, interest-rate expectations, energy exposure, and political risk. That means one currency may strengthen for reasons that have very little to do with another.
So even without a webinar this week, consider this VIP Weekly Market Forecast your fundamental map for Week 43. Use it alongside your technical levels and the lessons we have developed throughout our previous sessions. Know which catalysts support your current view, but just as importantly, know which developments could invalidate it.
The objective remains the same: we are not trying to predict every market movement before it happens. We are identifying the forces currently shaping the market, preparing for several reasonable outcomes, and allowing the market to provide confirmation before we act.
Let confirmation—not excitement—determine when you participate.
Before we move into this week’s key economic indicators, currency outlooks, market scenarios, and events to watch, let’s first revisit what happened last week and what those developments may be telling us about the market environment we are carrying forward.
Review What We Covered During the Session
Below is a consolidated reference of the topics, market developments, economic themes, currency pairs, charts, and scenarios discussed during our VIP live session. This file is intended to help you revisit the main points covered during the class, reflect on the context behind each discussion, and compare the scenarios we reviewed with how the market has developed since the session.
Please scroll through the file until the very end to ensure that you review the complete information and all items covered during the session. As you go through each section, take the opportunity to compare the discussion from the live class with the market’s current movement and any new developments that may have emerged since then.
Click “View” below to review the complete session recap.
Access Reminder: Please use the same email address you used to register for your GME subscription or GME–Broker Program when accessing the file. This helps ensure that your access is properly recognized.
Click “View” below to review the complete session recap.
Please use the same email address you used to register for your GME subscription or GME–Broker Program when accessing the file.
This helps ensure that your access is properly recognized.
Keep the Context in Mind as You Review
One of the most important habits we continue building inside VIP is learning how to review an analysis within the context in which it was originally made. The charts, observations, scenarios, price levels, and market expectations included in the recap reflect what was happening at or around the time of the live session.
The market, however, continues to move after every class. By the time you revisit this material, prices may have changed, new economic information may have been released, expectations may have shifted, or the market may have responded differently from one of the possibilities we originally discussed. That does not make the earlier discussion less useful. In fact, comparing what we anticipated with what eventually happened is an important part of the learning process.
As you review each section, compare the charts and scenarios discussed during the session with the market’s current movement. Consider what has changed since the session, which observations remain relevant, which scenarios the market confirmed or invalidated, whether new information changed the broader context, and how price reacted around the areas we previously discussed.
This allows you to use the recap not simply as a record of what was discussed, but as an opportunity to strengthen the way you analyze how markets develop over time.
Before Applying Anything From the Session
Please remember to independently verify the information before using any part of the session recap in your current market analysis. Double-check all dates and times, especially economic releases, central-bank announcements, and scheduled market events. Confirm the currency pairs and instruments being discussed, review the latest economic calendar for revisions or changes, and compare the charts shown in the recap with the current charts before deciding whether a level or scenario is still relevant.
Also check for any new economic data, geopolitical developments, central-bank commentary, or market-moving information that may have emerged since the session. Reassess the broader market context instead of assuming that an earlier expectation remains valid, and continue applying the risk-management principles, technical lessons, and market-reading process we have discussed throughout our previous VIP sessions.
The purpose of reviewing these materials is not to follow an earlier analysis automatically. It is to understand the reasoning behind the analysis, observe how the market developed afterward, and continue improving the way you prepare for different possibilities.
Markets change. Expectations change. Charts change. What we want to keep strengthening is how we analyze, prepare, and respond when they do.
Continue Building on What We Have Learned
Thank you again to everyone who joined our first VIP live session for September 2026. Your attentiveness, questions, and participation made the discussion even more meaningful, and I hope you continue using these session recaps as part of your ongoing review process.
Go back to the lessons from our previous sessions. Compare what we discussed with what actually happened afterward. Observe how new information changed—or reinforced—the market narrative. Whenever you review a previous chart or scenario, remember that the objective is not simply to determine whether an earlier view was “right” or “wrong.”
The greater value is understanding why the market behaved the way it did, what information changed along the way, and how we can become better prepared the next time a similar environment develops.
That is the process we will continue building together inside GME VIP. We look forward to continuing the discussion with you in our next VIP Class. 🧡
Important Disclaimer
All charts, market commentary, scenarios, economic information, currency pairs, price levels, dates, times, and other information presented during the VIP session and included in its recap are provided for educational purposes only and reflect information available at or around the time they were discussed or prepared.
Financial markets can change rapidly. Information, expectations, price levels, technical conditions, scheduled events, and market narratives may become outdated as new economic data, market developments, geopolitical events, central-bank communications, or price movements occur.
Before making any financial decision, always independently verify the latest market prices and charts, currency pairs and instruments, economic-calendar schedules, economic data and revisions, central-bank announcements, dates and times, and any relevant market news or developments. Always compare the charts and scenarios presented during the session with current market conditions before considering whether they remain relevant.
Nothing presented during the session or in the accompanying recap constitutes financial, investment, trading, legal, or personal financial advice. The discussions do not represent trading signals, recommendations to buy or sell, guarantees of future market direction, or promises of profit.
Trading involves risk, and losses are possible. Always consider your own circumstances, apply appropriate risk management, independently verify current information, and continue using the principles and lessons discussed throughout our previous GME VIP sessions when conducting your own analysis.